There’s a fascinating paragraph buried in the Office for Budget Reponsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the assessment of the economy it publishes alongside the Budget.
So fascinating I think it’s worth reproducing in its full, technocratic glory here:
Net migration in the year to September 2014 rose to 298,000, up from 210,000 in the year to September 2013.
Our previous forecasts have been underpinned by the assumption in the ONS low migration population projections that net migration will move towards 105,000 a year by mid-2019. A reduction over time seems consistent with the international environment and with the Government’s declared efforts to reduce it. But in light of recent evidence, it no longer seems central to assume it will decline so steeply.
So we now assume that net migration flows will tend towards 165,000 in the long term, consistent with the ONS principal population projections.
Relative to our December forecast, this raises potential output growth by 0.5 per cent over the forecast period via 16+ population growth
In other words, Britain is going to have more immigrants. Perhaps as many as 300,000 more over the next five years. And as a result, our economy is going grow faster, with all that that implies for the public finances and the rest.
That rather suggests that David Cameron shouldn’t be too sad about missing his promise to cut net immigration to “tens of thousands”. It may well be a problem for his re-election hopes, since it will surely count against him among Ukip-inclined voters.
But on the other hand, failing to deliver on the promise will help deliver the improved economy and the lower taxes on which he is basing his entire election campaign.
Source: The Telegraph
